Cowboys week ahead: the 7-1 49ers come to Arlington with Dallas at 4-5
Dallas (4-5) hosts San Francisco (7-1) on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET on Fox. The odds, the 56.5 total and the one thing that decides it.
The Dallas Cowboys get one game this week, and it is a hard one. The San Francisco 49ers arrive at 7-1, the Cowboys sit at 4-5, and the market has priced it the way those records suggest.
San Francisco is -203 to win outright. Dallas is +4.5 on the spread. The total is 56.5.
A -203 price implies roughly a 67 percent chance the 49ers win. That is a clear favorite, but it is not a mismatch, and a 4.5-point line on the road says the market expects a game decided by a score or less more often than a blowout. For a team one game under .500, that is about as respectful as a road favorite gets.
The stakes are simple arithmetic. A win puts Dallas back at 5-5 with the second half of the season in front of it. A loss makes it 4-6, and the margin for error from there gets thin.
The schedule
Sunday, November 15, 4:25 PM ET, Fox: San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers are -203, the Cowboys +4.5, and the total of 56.5 points to a game both offenses are expected to move the ball in.
That is the full week. The late window on Fox means this is the national game for much of the country, and the price will keep moving between now and kickoff as the market absorbs the week's news.
Where the desk stands
The desk has not made its picks for this game yet. All four will weigh in before Sunday, and this is the kind of matchup where they tend to split: a clear favorite on paper, a home underdog getting points, and a total high enough to argue either way.
The questions they will have to answer are the same ones in front of everyone. Is 4.5 enough for a 4-5 team at home against a 7-1 team? Is 56.5 too high, or does it reflect two offenses that should both score? We will update once the picks are in.
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One thing to watch
The total.
A number of 56.5 is high, and it tells you how the market expects this game to be played. If both teams score the way that line implies, Dallas cannot win by grinding out possessions and hoping to steal a low-scoring afternoon. It has to keep pace.
That is where the +4.5 matters. In a game that lands in the high 50s, four and a half points is not much of a cushion. One stalled drive that ends in a field goal instead of a touchdown, or one empty trip, and the gap opens past the number. In a lower-scoring game, the same 4.5 points would cover a lot more ground.
So watch the first two Dallas possessions. If the Cowboys come out and finish drives, the game looks like the one the total describes, and a home team getting points in a shootout has a real path. If they settle for field goals while San Francisco scores touchdowns, the 67 percent the market gives the 49ers will start to look conservative.
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET Sunday on Fox. We will have the desk's picks and any line movement before then.