Cowboys' Win Over Colts Exposed Indy's Problems; Now Dallas Hosts 49ers as Underdog
The Colts' own review of their 27-23 loss credits Caleb Downs and Ryan Flournoy. Next, Dallas returns home at 4-5 to face the favored 49ers.
The Dallas Cowboys left Lucas Oil Stadium with a 27-23 win on Sunday, and the Colts' own film review shows how close Indianapolis came to taking it. SB Nation's Stampede Blue graded Indianapolis player by player. In its account, two Dallas plays in the last 90 seconds settled the game: Ryan Flournoy beat cornerback Sauce Gardner for a 46-yard catch with 1:24 left, and rookie safety Caleb Downs intercepted Daniel Jones on the Colts' final drive.
The Indianapolis view shows how many chances Dallas gave away. The Colts' young defensive line hit Dak Prescott often. Ade Adebawore had five pressures, and Caden Curry, Laiatu Latu and Jaylahn Tuimoloau each had a sack. Ashton Dulin turned a short screen into a 55-yard touchdown, and Spencer Shrader made all three of his field goals, including one from 59 yards. The other side of that review is the Colts' mistakes. Jones had just eight passing yards midway through the second quarter, Jonathan Taylor fumbled in the red zone early in the fourth, and Josh Downs dropped two third-down passes. Caleb Downs outplayed his older brother. Besides the interception, he sacked Jones in the first half.
The Dallas box score explains why the result was close despite the yardage. NBC Sports reported that the Cowboys outgained Indianapolis 508 to 271. They still lost fumbles by CeeDee Lamb in the red zone and by Prescott, and the Prescott fumble led to a short Colts touchdown drive. DallasCowboys.com counted 14 Dallas penalties for 153 yards. NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth reported that Prescott threw for 335 yards while George Pickens and two other injured starters were inactive, and that Javonte Williams scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:08 left. The defense was the steadier unit. The Dallas Morning News noted 10 stops on 13 Colts third downs. Jones finished 20 of 34 for 180 yards.
What it means for the 49ers
The win moves Dallas to 4-5, but the season keeps alternating. The Cowboys have gone win, loss, win, loss over their last four games and have not won two in a row all year. Their next try comes Sunday, November 15, at home against San Francisco on Fox. Home games have been the bigger problem. Dallas is 1-3 at home, with the only win against Washington, and 3-2 on the road. Four of the five losses came by eight points or fewer, including three-point defeats to Baltimore and Arizona.
These have been high-scoring games. Over nine games the Cowboys have scored 246 points and allowed 236, about 27 for and 26 against per game. Stampede Blue noted that Dallas entered Week 9 ranked 27th in points allowed.
The board reflects that. San Francisco is favored at -212 on Novig, and the best price anywhere is -208 at Pinnacle. Dallas is +203 on Novig. On the spread, Novig lists the 49ers at -4.5 (-100), while DraftKings has them at -3.5 (-112), so the venues are a full point apart on the number. The total is 55.5 at most venues. Novig prices the over at -111 and the under at -102, Pinnacle has the over at -107, and Hard Rock Bet is the outlier at 56.5. Sportsbook hold runs from about 3 to 5 percent across the 12 venues on the game page.
Pickens' status will matter most for the offense this week. On defense, the question is whether the late-game composure Dallas showed in Indianapolis holds up against a stronger opponent.