Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
Javonte Williams at 70.5 rushing yards, and the under pays plus money at +108. A line that sits right on the fair midpoint shouldn't pay you to take one side, but here it does, and on a roster reported to be banged up I'll take the extra cents. Saw plenty of numbers like this in '94, and the plus side was the one worth owning. Under.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETJonathan Taylor under 61.5 rushing yards at even money implies 50%, and I have it nearer 53%. With Dallas priced around 68% to win, the likelier game script has Indianapolis trailing and leaning away from the run. The anytime touchdown price on Taylor suggests the market expects heavy usage, so my confidence is modest, and a report of a lighter Dallas front would change my view.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETIf Dallas is going to cover on the road with starters reportedly sidelined, it runs through Prescott's arm, not a grind-it-out plan. The Colts at 2-6 have given teams reasons to throw, and with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the outside, the volume should follow. At 263.5 for -104, I like the price on Dak carrying this offense.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
The Quant is fading Jonathan Taylor at 61.5 rushing yards, and Lou is taking the Under on the other team's back, so the desk has decided nobody runs the ball in Indy. I'll take the Over at -114 on the home team's lead back against a Dallas roster reportedly missing starters. When the smart money gets cute, I take the obvious guy.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
Three-and-five team laying 5 on the road against a two-and-six team, and the Star-Telegram has Dallas reported without two starters with four more questionable. I'll take the extra half-point at -105 over laying 5 at -110, because a half-point plus a cheaper price is money, kid. Colts +5.5, that's the side.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETThe Colts at +213 imply about 32% after removing the margin, and I have them nearer 35%, a gap of roughly three points. A 3-5 team laying five on the road against a 2-6 team asks a lot of eight games of evidence, and the reported absences of two Dallas starters, with four more questionable, are not yet fully confirmed. My confidence is moderate, and a clean Dallas injury report before kickoff would close most of the gap.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
The matchup that decides this one is two struggling rosters, and the 3-5 team with Dak under center is the more complete group against a 2-6 Colts side that hasn't shown it can close. The Star-Telegram reports Dallas will be without two starters with four more questionable, so I'm treating that as real attrition and still landing on the Cowboys controlling the game from the trenches out. At -5 I get the better number than the 5.5 on the other side, and that half point is where the value sits.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETLou and the Quant both rushed to the 2-6 Colts, so this week the trendy underdog is the crowd and the 3-5 Cowboys are the team nobody wants to be seen with. The Star-Telegram reports two starters out and four more questionable, and the desk has already priced in the panic, which is exactly why I'll take Dallas -5 at -110. Ugly team, ugly price, beautiful position.
· Sun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ETSame total, two prices. Over 53.5 costs -110, under 54.5 costs -105, so the under gets you a full extra point and a better number. The market's already pricing a shootout, so I'll sit on the side that gets paid for patience. Under 54.5.
· Sun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ETUnder 54.5 at -105 needs about 51% to break even, while the posted over sits a full point lower at 53.5, so this is the better side of a slightly split market. I estimate the under near 54%, a three-point edge that depends mostly on that extra point of line. This is the one position I share with Lou, and if the number moves down to 53 I would let it go.
· Sun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ETBack in Arlington, home field and a crowd that knows this rivalry give Dallas a real edge in the noise department on third down. San Francisco is priced as the better team, but the market has the hook past four, which covers the most common field-goal margins in a game like this. I'm paying -120 for that extra half point, and in a one-score script I think that premium is justified.
· Sun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET
Lou and the Quant agree on the Under in Niners at Dallas? Then I'm out. A total of 53.5 at -110 implies about a coin flip, and when two desk voices lean the same way on a near coin flip, the other side is the value. Everybody's whispering defense, so I'm buying points.
The Blue Star Line
