Cowboys vs 49ers preview: Dallas a 4.5-point home underdog in Week 11 matchup

The Dallas Cowboys (4-5) host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, November 15, on Fox. Dallas comes in as the underdog. San Francisco is favored by 4.5 points, and the total sits at 55.5 on Novig, one of 11 venues pricing the game on our board. Our Dallas Cowboys page has the full season guide. This preview covers the matchup itself.

Dallas is coming off a 27-23 win at Indianapolis, which got the Cowboys back to one game under .500 after a 33-30 home loss to Arizona the week before. The full results are on ESPN.

Where the market has it

On Novig, the 49ers are -208 on the moneyline and the Cowboys are +203. That puts San Francisco's chance of winning at about two in three. The spread on Novig is 49ers -4.5 at even money and Cowboys +4.5 at -111. Some sportsbooks have the line lower: DraftKings lists San Francisco -3.5 at -115. Across sportsbooks, the hold on the spread runs from 2.9% to 5.0%.

The total is 55.5 on Novig, with the over at -115 and the under at -102. BetRivers has 55 and Hard Rock Bet has 56.5. A 55.5 total with a 4.5-point spread works out to roughly 30-25 for San Francisco. The full line history is on the game odds page.

Why the total is so high

The 55.5 matches how Dallas games have gone. The Cowboys average 27.3 points per game through nine games and allow 26.2, so their games have averaged about 53.5 combined points. Six of the nine have gone past 50. The exceptions were the losses at Green Bay (23-13) and against Tampa Bay (24-16), plus a 28-20 loss to the Giants in the opener.

The defense is the concern. Dallas has given up 30 or more points three times, and two of those games were losses at home: 34-31 to Baltimore and 33-30 to Arizona. In both, the offense scored enough to win.

Matchup keys

The home record. Dallas is 1-3 at AT&T Stadium and 3-2 on the road. The home win was 37-20 over Washington. The road wins came at Houston, Philadelphia and Indianapolis. Being the home team has not helped this group much.

Winning close games. The Cowboys are 2-2 in games decided by one score. They held on in the last two minutes at Houston (34-30) and Indianapolis (27-23), and lost the late games to Baltimore and Arizona. With a 4.5-point spread, the market expects this one to be close too.

Keeping the offense going. Dallas scored 27 or more in six of nine games and went 4-2 in those games. It scored 20 or fewer three times and lost all three. Against San Francisco, the Cowboys likely need to land in the high 20s.

Injuries

The first official injury reports of the week come out Wednesday with the practice reports. Game designations follow on Friday. Our Cowboys page and the odds page will update as statuses change. Lines often move once players are ruled out, so the current 4.5 could shift before Sunday.

What is legal

Texas has not legalized sports betting, so sportsbooks cannot legally take action from people in the state, including on Cowboys games. Whether Novig and other venues are open to you depends on where you are, and many require users to be 21 or older. Check the rules where you live. The prices above are the market's view of the game, not a recommendation.

Kickoff is Sunday on Fox.