Cowboys survive Colts 27-23 on Javonte Williams' late TD and Caleb Downs' interception

The Dallas Cowboys came close to another fourth-quarter collapse on Sunday in Indianapolis, then got out of it with a win. Javonte Williams scored on a 1-yard run with 1:08 left, and rookie Caleb Downs intercepted Daniel Jones to finish off a 27-23 victory over the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, according to ESPN. Dallas is now 4-5 and a game out of the hole it dug last week, when it lost 33-30 at home to Arizona.

The Cowboys trailed 23-20 when they got the ball back with 1:37 left. Dak Prescott hit Ryan Flournoy on a deep ball down the right sideline that reached the Indianapolis 29, and Williams finished a four-play, 65-yard drive that took 29 seconds. Yahoo Sports credited Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams with the pressure that forced Jones into a desperate third-and-22 throw on the Colts' last possession. Downs picked it off for the first interception of his career. FOX59 noted that the rookie's older brother, Josh Downs, plays receiver for Indianapolis.

Dallas mostly beat itself in this one. The team's own recap on DallasCowboys.com counted 14 penalties for 153 yards and two lost fumbles. One of those fumbles came on a Laiatu Latu strip-sack of Prescott that led to the Colts' first touchdown. The Cowboys still outgained Indianapolis 508 yards to 271 and held the ball for 35:43. Prescott threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, completing 21 of 34 passes. One of those scores was a 44-yarder to CeeDee Lamb just before halftime that put Dallas up 17-7. Williams ran for 101 yards. The Associated Press reported that Williams handled 20 carries after Tyler Goodson left in the first half with a knee injury. Goodson's status is the injury to watch this week.

Prescott said he was at peace with games coming down to the final drive, telling DallasCowboys.com about the late possession, "We had to have it." Indianapolis has now lost five in a row and sits at 2-7.

What it means for San Francisco

The win doesn't change the Cowboys' biggest problem, which is winning at home. Dallas is 3-2 on the road and 1-3 at AT&T Stadium. The only home win came against Washington, and the three home losses to Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Arizona were all by eight points or fewer. San Francisco comes in next Sunday, November 15, on Fox. Six of Dallas' nine games have been decided by one score, and the Colts game was another one.

The market expects that trend to break the wrong way. San Francisco is favored on all 11 venues on this site's board. Novig has the 49ers at -208 on the moneyline and Dallas at +203. On the spread, Novig lists San Francisco -4.5 at -100. DraftKings has the best price anywhere on the 49ers' side at -3.5 (-115), so the venues are a full point apart on the margin. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 2.9% to 5.0%.

The total is high. Novig sits at 55.5, and the range runs from 55 at BetRivers to 56.5 at Hard Rock Bet. That number makes sense for a Dallas team that just put up 508 yards and has allowed 23 or more points in four of its last five games. If the Cowboys want to get back to .500, they'll need a cleaner game at home than the one they played in Indianapolis.