Cowboys at 4-5: Can Dallas Still Catch the Giants in the NFC East?

The Dallas Cowboys reach the middle of November at 4-5 and still in the NFC East race. That says as much about the division as it does about Dallas. The New York Giants lead at 5-2-1, and SB Nation's Blogging The Boys asked its readers this week whether the Cowboys can still catch them.

David Halprin's case for doubt comes down to opportunity. The Giants have won the games they were supposed to win, even while dealing with a quarterback injury, and Dallas has not. In Halprin's words, "The Cowboys wasted some of their soft schedule" while New York mostly did not. He also noted that the second half of the schedule gets tougher for both teams, so the gap of roughly two games is not settled yet.

The season numbers explain how Dallas ended up in this spot. The Cowboys have scored 246 points and allowed 236, a +10 margin you would expect from a team above .500. Close losses have hurt them. Baltimore beat them by three, Arizona by three, and Tampa Bay and the Giants by eight each. The odd part is where the losses have come. Dallas is 3-2 on the road, with wins at Houston, Philadelphia and Indianapolis, but just 1-3 at home. Its only home win was a 37-20 victory over Washington.

Within the division, Dallas is 2-1. It beat Washington, won 38-21 in Philadelphia and lost 28-20 to the Giants in the opener. That loss could matter a great deal by December, because the Cowboys likely need to win the rematch to keep any tiebreaker in play.

What it means against San Francisco

The Cowboys come into Sunday's home game against the San Francisco 49ers (Fox) after a 27-23 win at Indianapolis, their second road win in three weeks. They have alternated wins and losses for five straight games. The 1-3 home record is the trend they most need to fix, because a fourth home loss would leave them under .500 with less time to make up ground on New York.

The market sees a difficult game. San Francisco is favored across the board for this game, which covers 12 venues. On Novig, the 49ers are -199 on the moneyline and Dallas is +190. That price makes San Francisco roughly a two-in-three favorite.

The spread is where the venues differ most. Novig has San Francisco -4.5 at +106. The best price elsewhere is DraftKings with the 49ers at -3.5 for -115. That one-point gap matters in a matchup where Dallas has played so many one-score games. The total is high: Novig lists 55.5, and Hard Rock Bet has the best under price at 56 (-110). Given that Dallas has played in shootouts against Houston, Baltimore and Arizona, a high-scoring game would not be surprising. Sportsbook hold on the game ranges from 2.9% to 5.3%, depending on the market.

An upset at home would bring Dallas back to .500 and keep pressure on the Giants. A loss would make the Blogging The Boys question tougher to answer with a yes.