Cowboys Week 9 rooting guide: Beat the Colts, then root hard for the AFC

The Dallas Cowboys go into Week 9 at 3-5, and for now the tiebreakers are working against them. Blogging The Boys' Jess Haynie, writing for SB Nation, puts Dallas behind the Seahawks, Rams, Buccaneers, Falcons and Cardinals in the NFC wild-card race. Head-to-head losses push the Cowboys below the rest of the 3-5 group, and the Packers hold the No. 7 seed at 5-3.

Haynie sees a shorter climb in the NFC East. The Giants lead at 4-2-1, and their schedule is about to get harder. Everything still depends on Sunday in Indianapolis. Haynie argues that a loss to a Colts team already selling off veterans should push Dallas to consider selling too. The deadline is Tuesday afternoon, according to NFL.com's trade tracker. Yahoo Sports reports that Indianapolis is 2-6 after a 42-7 loss at Jacksonville and has already traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner.

If Dallas takes care of the Colts, here is who the guide wants to win elsewhere. In the division, it wants the Eagles over the Giants and the Commanders over the Rams, since New York and Los Angeles are bigger obstacles than Philadelphia or Washington. Among NFC matchups, it wants Arizona to upset Seattle because the Seahawks look more likely to stay in the wild-card race. It also wants Chicago to beat Tampa Bay, because the 6-2 Bears are unlikely to fall back to Dallas' level, while the Buccaneers could rebound once Baker Mayfield returns.

The rest of the guide is a full AFC sweep: Bengals over Falcons, Dolphins over Lions, Broncos over Panthers, Patriots over Packers, Raiders over 49ers and Bills over Vikings. Every one of those NFC teams sits ahead of Dallas. A Green Bay loss also helps the Cowboys in the 2027 draft. Haynie calls it "highly likely" that Dallas will use the Packers' first-round pick, and the guide doesn't mind if that costs some value on the seventh-rounder New England owes Dallas. Pittsburgh, which owes Dallas a fourth-rounder, is on bye.

What it means for Sunday in Indianapolis

Dallas has lost three of its last four. The only win in that stretch was a 38-21 game at Philadelphia, and the most recent result was a 33-30 home loss to Arizona. The Cowboys are 2-2 on the road, with wins at Houston and Philadelphia. They have scored 219 points and allowed 213, roughly 27 a game on each side, so their games tend to be high-scoring.

On this site's Cowboys-Colts board, Dallas is favored at -208 on Novig's moneyline, with Indianapolis at +203. Novig has the spread at Cowboys -4.5 (-102). The best Dallas number elsewhere is theScore Bet's -4 at -110, and DraftKings has the widest Colts line at +5.5 (-115). Novig lists the total at 51.5, and Hard Rock Bet has 52. Sportsbook holds across the 12 venues run from 3.2% to 5.4%, so the venues are within about a point of each other.

The following week is tougher. The 49ers come to Arlington on Nov. 15 and are favored at -208 on Novig, while DraftKings has the best price at -198. Dallas is +178 on Novig, and the early board shows a total around 54. With San Francisco up next, a loss in Indianapolis would leave the Cowboys facing the deadline decision Haynie describes.