Novig pricesCowboys vs. 49ers: A banged-up Dallas secondary faces the NFC leader's ground game
The 4-5 Cowboys host the NFC-leading 49ers with a thin secondary and a weak run defense. Here is what the numbers and the board say.
The Dallas Cowboys won ugly in Indianapolis last week, and the numbers from that game explain both why they can stay with San Francisco on Sunday and why so few people expect them to. Writing for SB Nation, Dyllan Rivers lays out the mismatch. Dallas ranks among the league's worst teams at stopping the run and on third down. The 49ers run one of the NFL's best ground games and convert third downs at one of the highest rates in the league.
The Colts game showed what Dallas can do when the offense works. CeeDee Lamb had 195 receiving yards and a touchdown, and Javonte Williams and Tyler Goodson combined for 178 rushing yards on 32 carries. Even so, turnovers and penalties kept the Cowboys from turning those yards into points, and they needed a one-handed catch by Ryan Flournoy late to win 27-23. San Francisco had an easier week. It beat Las Vegas 38-17, held the Raiders to 24 rushing yards and intercepted three passes, one of them returned for a touchdown. Christian McCaffrey scored twice.
The injury report makes that job harder. Yahoo Sports reports that both starting outside cornerbacks are questionable. DaRon Bland showed up on Friday's report with an ankle injury, and his counterpart has a foot problem that kept him out at Indianapolis. At safety, starter Jalen Thompson is still on injured reserve, P.J. Locke is out with a concussion and Juanyeh Thomas is doubtful. Goodson is out with a knee injury, which leaves Dallas without half of last week's rushing tandem. Jake Ferguson, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Jonathan Mingo are also out. There was some good news, according to Yahoo Sports. George Pickens practiced fully and has no injury designation, KaVontae Turpin is back from a rib injury, and DeMarvion Overshown is cleared after a hamstring injury.
Rivers' conclusion is that Schottenheimer should coach aggressively, going for it on fourth-and-short instead of trying long field goals. In his words, "Nobody expects the Cowboys to win."
What it means for Sunday
Dallas is 4-5 and has alternated wins and losses for most of the season. The Cowboys have been better on the road (3-2) than at AT&T Stadium (1-3). Their only home win came against Washington, and they have lost home games to Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Arizona. They have scored 246 points and allowed 236, or about 27.3 per game against 26.2. Few teams have played as many close, high-scoring games.
The board shows that. Across 12 venues, the total is around 55.5. Novig has the Over at -106 and the Under at +104. The best Under is BetRivers at 56 (-109). San Francisco is favored at -190 on Novig's moneyline, and Dallas is +186. The spread is where the venues disagree most. Novig has the 49ers favored by 3.5 at -113, with Dallas +3.5 at +108. DraftKings has the best Cowboys number anywhere at +4.5 (-115), the same 4.5 Rivers cited from FanDuel. That puts a full point between venues. Sportsbook hold on the spread ranges from 2.9% to 5.0%.
A spread of 3.5 to 4.5 suggests the market thinks Dallas' offense can keep the game close. To pull off the upset, the Cowboys will need to stop the run with a patched-together secondary behind the front. Tennessee visits next week, and Dallas is already favored by 7.5 in that game.