Novig prices
Cowboys' run defense faces McCaffrey and 49ers with a thinned-out secondary
Dallas (4-5) hosts San Francisco on Sunday with a leaky run defense and a banged-up secondary. The 49ers are favored by 4.5 points.
The Dallas Cowboys host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, and their run defense looks like the biggest problem in the matchup. In a detailed preview for SB Nation, Kyle Posey writes that Dallas gives up the second-most yards before contact per carry in the league. He also lists the Cowboys at 29th in stuff rate and last on third down. On the inside zone runs Posey charted, Dallas allowed 8.08 yards per carry, and that is a run San Francisco has been using more often. Christian McCaffrey is averaging just over 5 yards per carry on inside zone this season.
Posey credits Quinnen Williams as the defense's one standout. Williams leads all defensive tackles with 14 tackles for loss. Posey still expects San Francisco to win 38-30, writing that Dallas "will score" but that Dak Prescott will have to keep pace with Brock Purdy, who is 3-0 against the Cowboys.
The secondary is a bigger worry than it was a week ago. According to Yahoo Sports, Joey Porter Jr. (foot) and DaRon Bland (ankle) are both questionable. Safety P.J. Locke is out with a concussion, Juanyeh Thomas is doubtful with a hamstring injury and Jalen Thompson remains on injured reserve. Jake Ferguson, Donovan Ezeiruaku, Tyler Goodson and Jonathan Mingo have been ruled out. There is some good news on offense. A separate Yahoo Sports report says George Pickens practiced fully Friday and carries no designation after missing the win at Indianapolis. KaVontae Turpin and DeMarvion Overshown also practiced fully. That puts more pressure on rookie Caleb Downs in the slot. Posey notes Downs allowed all nine targets thrown his way against Houston, Green Bay and Arizona to be completed.
What it means for Sunday
Dallas is 4-5 and has alternated wins and losses all season. It has not won two games in a row yet. Last week's 27-23 win at Indianapolis is the latest chance to change that. The record splits sharply by venue. The Cowboys are 3-2 on the road and 1-3 at home. Their only home win was 37-20 over Washington, and the home losses came against Baltimore, Tampa Bay and, two weeks ago, Arizona in overtime. The offense has scored 246 points to 236 allowed, about 27 a game on each side. The low points were 13 at Green Bay and 16 against Tampa Bay, the kind of defenses Posey says the 49ers resemble.
The board on the game page lists 12 venues, and all of them have San Francisco favored. On Novig, the 49ers are -194 on the moneyline and Dallas is +190. Novig has San Francisco as a 4.5-point favorite at +106. The best price elsewhere is Pinnacle, with the 49ers at -4 for -103, so the venues differ by half a point. The total is 55.5 on Novig, with the over at -108 and the under at +104. BetRivers has the best under at 56 for -109. Sportsbook hold runs from 2.9% to 5.0% on the spread, which means pricing is tight across the venues.
A 55.5-point total fits Posey's projection of a high-scoring game. It also fits a Dallas team whose last two games had 63 and 50 points. The next game is easier: Tennessee comes to Arlington on November 22, and Dallas is favored at -471 on Novig. Turning the alternating pattern into a winning streak depends on slowing McCaffrey first. Season coverage is on the Cowboys team page.