Cowboys need early-down aggression without Jake Ferguson against the 7-1 49ers

The Dallas Cowboys host the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday without their tight end, and the case for a more aggressive offense has become hard to argue with. Jake Ferguson is one of five Cowboys ruled out on Friday's injury report, according to Yahoo Sports. Safety P.J. Locke, running back Tyler Goodson, receiver Jonathan Mingo and edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku are out as well. Ferguson hurt his left knee in last week's 27-23 win at Indianapolis.

Sean Martin of SB Nation argues that Dallas has to stop leaning on Dak Prescott to bail it out late. He notes that two of the three Cowboys touchdown drives in Indianapolis came in two-minute situations, one before halftime and one at the end of the game. Dallas ranks near the top of the league in first downs per play but only 14th in fewest third downs faced per game. That puts the Cowboys closer to the Steelers, Texans and Browns than to the offenses they would like to be compared with. The fix Martin proposes is to throw on early downs, keep the offense in spread formations, feed CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens whenever possible, and use tempo and motion.

Losing Ferguson makes that harder. Without a reliable target in the middle of the field, Dallas has less ability to punish San Francisco for crowding the box, especially with Fred Warner covering ground at linebacker. On defense, Martin says the job is to keep Christian McCaffrey from piling up yards on first down and to keep Brock Purdy contained in the pocket. That puts the load on Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark. His sharper point concerns the sidelines. He writes that Brian Schottenheimer has been outcoached "all too often" and that Prescott has not beaten the 49ers since 2017.

What it means for Sunday

Dallas is 4-5. The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses over their last four games: a 38-21 rout in Philadelphia, a 33-30 home loss to Arizona, and the escape in Indianapolis. The offense has done its part, scoring 246 points, or about 27 per game. The defense has given up 236, or about 26 per game. Dallas has scored at least 27 in five of nine games and has topped 30 four times. Home games have been the problem. The Cowboys are 1-3 at AT&T Stadium, with losses to Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Arizona and only the Washington win to show for it. They are 3-2 on the road.

The markets expect San Francisco to extend that home slide. On this site's board, the 49ers are favored at -194 on Novig's moneyline, with Dallas at +190. Novig has the 49ers favored by 4.5 points at +106. The best price anywhere among the 12 venues is Pinnacle's 49ers -4 at -103. That means the venues are half a point apart on the number itself. The total sits at 55.5 on Novig and reaches 56 at BetRivers, where the under is -109. That is a high number, which fits a Dallas team that has had trouble getting stops. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 2.9% to 5.0%.

With a week-to-week Ferguson out, the burden falls on Prescott, Lamb and Pickens to play from ahead of the chains. If they can't, the 49ers are built to keep the ball away from them. Kickoff is 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox. Tennessee visits the following week, and Dallas is already favored by 7.5 points in that one.