Cowboys' run defense faces its toughest test as 49ers plan to pound the ball in Arlington

The San Francisco 49ers are not hiding how they plan to attack the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. They will run the ball and keep running it. In a preview for Niners Nation (SB Nation), Jason Aponte writes that San Francisco wants to reach 40 carries for the second week in a row, and the numbers back up the plan. The 49ers lead the league in offensive EPA per play (0.14) and in rushing success rate (50.4 percent).

Dallas is a poor matchup for that kind of offense. The Cowboys rank 27th in EPA per rush allowed and 25th in rushing success rate allowed. They have given up 1,327 rushing yards at close to 5 yards a carry, the second-worst run defense San Francisco will have seen in two weeks. They also rarely load the box: Dallas uses a heavy front on 18.1 percent of snaps, 30th in the league. Pre-snap motion is another worry. The 49ers use it on roughly 73 percent of plays, the most in the NFL, and Dallas ranks last in EPA allowed against motion.

There is a counterpoint. Blogging The Boys noted that Dallas held Jonathan Taylor to 46 rushing yards in last week's 27-23 win at Indianapolis, one of its best games against the run this season. Quinnen Williams forced a fumble in that game, and rookie safety Caleb Downs sealed it with his first interception in the final minute. The Cowboys outgained the Colts 508-271. Owner Jerry Jones told 105.3 The Fan that the team may have been a little optimistic about how fast the defense would come together, but he still set a goal for the week, per Dallas Sports Journal: "pull a great upset."

The Dallas offense has a favorable matchup of its own. San Francisco plays mostly Cover 3, and Dak Prescott has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt against that look, with 0.231 EPA per play on 79 throws, per Niners Nation. He has struggled against Cover 0 blitzes, though only on 29 attempts. The 49ers did not get to Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta, and San Francisco's pass rush, even with Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner, has to do better against Prescott.

What it means for Sunday

The Cowboys are 4-5 and have not won or lost two games in a row since their 1-1 start. They have alternated results for seven straight weeks. Home has been the problem. Dallas is 1-3 at AT&T Stadium and 3-2 on the road, and all three home losses were one-score games or close to it: Baltimore by 3, Arizona by 3, Tampa Bay by 8. Over nine games the Cowboys are scoring 27.3 points and allowing 26.2. San Francisco arrives at 7-1.

The board has the 49ers favored by 3.5 points across 12 venues. Novig lists San Francisco at -199 on the moneyline and Dallas at +194. On the spread, Novig has the 49ers -3.5 at -113 and the Cowboys +3.5 at +111. The best Dallas number anywhere is bet365's +4.5 at -117, which costs extra juice for the added point. The total sits at 55.5 at Novig, with the over at -102 and the under at even money. BetMGM offers the best under price, 56 at -108. The sportsbooks' hold on the spread ranges from 2.9 to 5.0 percent, so the prices are tightly grouped.

The Cowboys stay home in Week 12 against Tennessee. They are favored by 7.5 in that game, and Novig lists them at -426 on the moneyline.